Political outlook 2014: A list of key emerging markets that head to the polls

One of the big risks that emerging markets will face in 2014, apart from the US Federal Reserve’s gradual dialling back of its mammoth monetary stimulus programme, is political.

Some important emerging market governments head to crucial polls in 2014. The outcome of these elections will be important for understanding how these economies are likely to perform going ahead.

In a report titled “2014 Global Political Outlook: All over but the shouting?” released on December 16, Citi Research highlights the key political elections to watch for:

1. Turkey

Local elections are scheduled for March. They will provide the first test for Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP government after the Gezi Park protests.

GDP growth estimate for 2014: 3.5%

2. Indonesia

Elections are scheduled for April (general) and July (presidential).

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono leaves office amid fuel price hike protests, flailing equity markets and a depreciating currency. Newcomer Jakarta governor Joko Widodo leads big-name candidates in the polls.

GDP growth estimate for 2014: 5.3%

3. South Africa

Jacob Zuma’s African National Congress (ANC) is expected to be re-elected, but faces growing challenges from the left and right, as well as labour unrest and high unemployment. Elections are scheduled for between April and July.

GDP growth estimate for 2014: 2.8%

4. India

General elections are expected to be completed by May. Pro-business leader Narendra Modi leads the Bharatiya Janta Party against the Congress’s 11-year government as the economy wobbles.

GDP growth estimate for 2014: 5.6%

5. Brazil

Presidential and general elections will be held in October. Current President Dilma Rousseff  of the Workers’ Party remains the favourite for re-election after the ‘Salad Revolution’. But globally-renowned environmentalist Marina Silva cuts into her base.

GDP growth estimate for 2014: 2%.

                                              ***********************************************************************

In addition, here’s a table of key political events to watch for globally next year from Citi Research.

globe-political

This is my penultimate post for 2014. The last post will be on December 30. Wallofmoney will resume regular reporting (Monday-Friday) from January 6.

Have a happy holiday season.

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